Update;
I woke up this morning to some devastating news from my cousin who lived in Grindavik Iceland. As many know, I've been keeping a close eye on the progression surrounding the December 18th Eruption. At that point, we, as a student unit thought we'd lost the town as that had been the information presented to us.
Today however, we can, without any doubt say, parts of the town will be lost (and already have been lost) to the lava from the recent eruption that began at 8am yesterday with a second fissure opening above the town, beyond the barriers, at around midday.
As I had promised those who'd asked, I am keeping our players informed. As this will affect a fairly large portion of our community We may not realize just how many players are from Iceland, but the fact is, a good chunk are. They are either from there and have since moved to other nations for school, work, or left permanently, or have remained there, with my cousin being one such person.
As previously stated;
Fissure eruptions are much more unpredictable
This makes them much more violent in nature
And they are known to be longer lasting - meaning they erupt for far longer periods with 'rest' periods between eruptions (the Puna District of Hawai'i is just one example of how a fissure eruption 'acts').
Since I woke up, lava has;
Entered the town from the second fissure that opened up past the barriers meant to protect the town
Damages are cited to be 'beyond repair', from multiple, reliable sources
But what we are still unclear of, is just how bad this eruption is going to be. A few other factors to keep in mind;
The area in which these eruptions are occurring (the Reykjanes Peninsula) had be 'dormant' for around 800yrs
This means an eruption was long overdue for this volcanic hotspot
Eruptions in the area began on March 2021, lava fountains erupted spectacularly from a 500- to 750-metre-long (1,640- to 2,460ft-long) fissure in the ground in the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system
This, volcanologists say, is what 'woke up' the rest of the system itself and was only a 'matter of time' before another eruption happened
"Benedikt Halldórsson, specialist in earthquake hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says "the fissure that opened this afternoon was about 100 meters long and opened only about 200 meters from the Efrahóps neighborhood in Grindavík, just east of Stamhólsgjánna."
All current information that I have gathered comes directly from RUV and so, with that said, as a person speaking to her fellow players, I wanted to be wrong. But, BUT. I must also say, my instincts were telling me "this isn't over yet" Something about how fast the December 18th eruption ended had alarm bells going off. I wanted to be wrong. I sat last night with my cousin on the phone, both of us crying. Her from the fact that her home is being lost and me from the fact that I'm trying to stay positive, trying to help her stay positive. But how can you say "it'll be okay!" when right before your eyes, from live camera feeds, you're watching as lava not only enters parts of the town, but destroys homes? How can I sit here, lying to her, when we both know what the inevitable is about to be?
We as scientists have been wrong before. In many cases, horribly wrong, in which countless lives have been lost. We try our very best to learn from these mistakes of the past, so they aren't made again in the future. I firmly believe that, while the scientists saying to the Icelandic people "there is still hope!" have good intentions....but I also believe, the reality is, we do not control nature. She alone decides what's going to happen and when and where it's going to happen. And last night, my cousin angrily said to me "Why are they lying to us!? Why are they saying this is GOOD!? How is losing even a portion of the town...GOOD!?" What do you say when you agree with your family? How do you find the right words to say, when your own thoughts are the same?
How can losing even a small section of this ancient fishing village, be 'good'? How can we safely say, the damages the quake swarms caused, are 'good'?
I have personally seen, first hand, what an earthquake swarm damaged village looks like. The lost hope in the faces of those when they realize that there's no sense in even attempting to rebuild. When they realize that it's going to cost them more than what it would cost to simply relocate elsewhere.
But do I have hope? In a sense. Yes. Fissure eruptions are longer lasting than your average volcanic eruption which can last roughly 9hrs with some even lasting 16hrs, with the rare exception of the Kraktoa Volcano (The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa (Indonesian: Letusan Krakatau 1883) in the Sunda Strait occurred from 20 May until 21 October 1883, peaking in the late morning hours of 27 August when over 70% of the island of Krakatoa and its surrounding archipelago were destroyed as it collapsed into a caldera. 21 October 1883).
But fissure eruptions, once they begin, you have the ability as a scientist to get a read on them. Fissure eruptions have 'behaviors'. As surprising as this may sound, they do. They tend to have reoccurring patterns (behaviors), that scientists can then use to determine what may happen next in the following stages of an eruption.
With this one, I don't believe this is over. I have a sneaking hunch we may end up seeing a fissure opening directly in the town itself (worst case scenario) but, I also believe that this eruption, may very well, relieve the pressure that has built up from the December 18th eruption. Let me explain.
I noticed something about the two eruptions. The December 18th erupted lava was slower moving. This mean the lava was older. This was the magma that had entered and thus filled, the lava dyke previously. The newer eruption is faster moving lava. This means the lava is newer, which means, it's fresher. Some believe this is where the 'hope' is coming from. New lava tends to sap an eruption of it's energy much more quickly, while erupting more violently. And we're seeing this with how slowly the eruption's energy is being sapped. How slowly it's declining in energy and therefore eruptable power.
That said. We just don't know yet which way this eruption is going to go. As previously mentioned, fissure eruptions are so hard to predict. Because unlike an established volcano, their attitudes can change in the blink of an eye. Just Icelandic has some fairly solid views on what's going to happen, what could happen, etc, so I strongly suggest giving his videos a view. Below is a compiled list of live feeds, in which you can see the eruption for yourself as some feeds, won't paste as a video here.
Official RUV news Outlet: RUV news outlet
The Grapevine news Outline: The Grapevine IS
The man who died while attempting to backfill a fissure crack in the town, has been identified in this video;
And lava has now entered the town from the 900m fissure that opened.
In closing, I can only hope that the Gods can keep the rest of Grindavik safe.
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